Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea
| Autor: | Keon-Haeng Lee, Huiseong Noh, Vijay P. Singh, Seung Jin Hong, Jaewon Kwak, Narae Kang, Soojun Kim, Duck-Gil Kim, Hung Soo Kim |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2014 |
| Předmět: |
Health
Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Climate Change Rain Notifiable disease malaria Climate change lcsh:Medicine Article Climate change scenario parasitic diseases Republic of Korea medicine Humans PCA-regression analysis Principal Component Analysis Incidence (epidemiology) Incidence lcsh:R Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Temperature Regression analysis Humidity medicine.disease climate variable Geography Multicollinearity Climatology climate change Climate model Malaria Forecasting |
| Zdroj: | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 11, Iss 10, Pp 10587-10605 (2014) INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH(11): 10 Volume 11 Issue 10 Pages 10587-10605 |
| ISSN: | 1660-4601 1661-7827 |
| Popis: | Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001–2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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