Bayesian forecast of the basic reproduction number during the Covid-19 epidemic in Morocco and Italy
| Autor: | Mohamed El Khalifi, Roger Pettersson, Mohamed El Fatini, Richard Gerlach |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
education.field_of_study
Computer science Download Geography Planning and Development Population Warranty COVID-19 Permission 1603 Demography Coronavirus Bayes' theorem 0102 Applied Mathematics 16 Studies in Human Society Statistics A priori and a posteriori General Agricultural and Biological Sciences education Constant (mathematics) Epidemic model 01 Mathematical Sciences Demography |
| Zdroj: | Mathematical Population Studies. 28:228-242 |
| ISSN: | 1547-724X 0889-8480 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/08898480.2021.1941661 |
| Popis: | In a Covid-19 susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model with time-varying rates of transmission, recovery, and death, the parameters are constant in small time intervals. A posteriori parameters result from the Euler-Maruyama approximation for stochastic differential equations and from Bayes’ theorem. Parameter estimates and 10-day predictions are performed based on Moroccan and Italian Covid-19 data. Mean absolute errors and mean square errors indicate that predictions are of good quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Mathematical Population Studies is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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