Analysis of prognosis on patients with severe viral hepatitis using the model for end-stage liver disease
| Autor: | Shu-Qing Cai, Zhi-Hong Weng |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2005 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
Male medicine.medical_specialty Pathology Adolescent Hepatitis Viral Human Concordance Sensitivity and Specificity Severity of Illness Index Gastroenterology Liver disease Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Predictive Value of Tests Internal medicine Severity of illness medicine Humans Aged Hepatitis Plasma Exchange business.industry Mortality rate General Medicine Middle Aged Prognosis medicine.disease body regions Predictive value of tests Female Brief Reports business Viral hepatitis |
| Zdroj: | World Journal of Gastroenterology. 11:899 |
| ISSN: | 1007-9327 |
| DOI: | 10.3748/wjg.v11.i6.899 |
| Popis: | To study the practical use of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) on clinic and assess its validity by the concordance (C)-statistic in predicting the prognosis of the patient with severe viral hepatitis.One hundred and twenty-one patients were divided into plasma exchange group and non-plasma exchange group, and were graded with MELD formula. The death rate was observed within 3 mo.Eighty-one patients died within 3 mo (35 cases in PE group, 46 cases in non-PE group). The mortality of patients in PE group whose MELD score between 20-30 and 30-40 were 31.6% and 57.7%, respectively, but in non-PE cases they were 67.6%, 81.3% respectively. There was significant difference between PE group and non-PE group (P0.05). However, the mortality of patients whose MELD score higher than 40 were 93.3% in PE group and 100% in non-PE group and there was no significant difference between the two groups (P = 0.650.05). The optimal cut-off values of MELD to predict the prognosis of patients were 30 in PE group whose sensitivity, specificity and C-statistic were 80.0%, 52.0% and 0.777, but in non-PE group they were 25, 82.6%, 86.7% and 0.869, respectively.The MELD score can act as a disease severity index for patients with severe viral hepatitis, and the mortality of the patient increases with the increase of the MELD score. The MELD can accurately predict the short-term prognosis of patients with severe viral hepatitis. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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