A quantitative framework for assessing physical damage and recovery dynamics from consecutive hazards
| Autor: | Borre, A., De Angeli, S., Ghizzoni, T., Trasforini, E., Ottonelli, D. |
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| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Zdroj: | XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
| DOI: | 10.57757/iugg23-3637 |
| Popis: | Space and time play a crucial role in multi-hazard damage assessment. When two or more natural hazards occur simultaneously in the same location or within a short time frame, the physical integrity of infrastructure can be compromised, leading to two scenarios: (i) 'spatial-temporal overlapping impact', when the damage results from the combined impact of both hazards, and (ii)' overlapping spatial impact with residual and subsequent damage', in case of cumulative damage from consecutive hazards. Current literature highlights the lack of clear frameworks for multi-hazard impact assessment. Complexity in formalising quantitative aspects and understanding feedback loops between hazard, exposure and vulnerability emphasises this gap. This research aims to develop a generalised mathematical framework for quantitatively assessing multi-hazard physical damage on exposed assets, such as buildings or critical infrastructures, over time. The proposed framework covers both cases of compound and consecutive hazards. Specifically, in the "overlapping spatial impacts with residual and subsequent damage" scenario, the framework considers the reduction in exposure value, modification of vulnerability, and recovery dynamics. A sensitivity analysis has been conducted to evaluate how the duration of recovery and its functional shape (linear, exponential, and logarithmic) affect the asset's resilience.The framework is tested through a series of real and virtual case studies, demonstrating its applicability. Observing real scenarios allows the assessment of socioeconomic and institutional factors influencing the single and multi-hazard recovery process. By incorporating dynamic analysis into the recovery phase, we can offer decision-makers a comprehensive understanding of the impacts caused by compound and consecutive events. The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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