Modelling HIV disease process and progression in seroconversion among South Africa women: using transition-specific parametric multi-state model
Autor: | Delia North, Zelalem G. Dessie, Temesgen Zewotir, Henry Mwambi |
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Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
Adult
medicine.medical_specialty Health Informatics HIV Infections Accelerated failure time model lcsh:Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics 01 natural sciences 010104 statistics & probability 03 medical and health sciences South Africa 0302 clinical medicine Immune system Internal medicine medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine Longitudinal Studies Prospective Studies 0101 mathematics Seroconversion Prospective cohort study Latent variables lcsh:QH301-705.5 Probability Multi state business.industry Research AFT models Viral Load Transitions and quality of life domain scores Markov model CD4 Lymphocyte Count Waiting probabilities Chronic infection Sexual Partners lcsh:Biology (General) Modeling and Simulation Disease Progression lcsh:R858-859.7 Female Factor analysis business Viral load Hiv disease |
Zdroj: | Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, Vol 17, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2020) Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling |
ISSN: | 1742-4682 |
Popis: | BackgroundHIV infected patients may experience many intermediate events including between-event transition throughout their follow up. Through modelling these transitions, we can gain a deeper understanding of HIV disease process and progression and of factors that influence the disease process and progression pathway. In this work, we present transition-specific parametric multi-state models to describe HIV disease process and progression.MethodsThe data is from an ongoing prospective cohort study conducted amongst adult women who were HIV-infected in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Participants were enrolled during the acute HIV infection phase and then followed up during chronic infection, up to ART initiation.ResultsTransition specific distributions for multi-state models, including a variety of accelerated failure time (AFT) models and proportional hazards (PH) models, were presented and compared in this study. The analysis revealed that women enrolling with a CD4 count less than 350 cells/mm3(severe and advanced disease stages) had a far lower chance of immune recovery, and a considerably higher chance of immune deterioration, compared to women enrolling with a CD4 count of 350 cells/mm3or more (normal and mild disease stages). Our analyses also showed that older age, higher educational levels, higher scores for red blood cell counts, higher mononuclear scores, higher granulocytes scores, and higher physical health scores, all had a significant effect on a shortened time to immunological recovery, while women with many sex partners, higher viral load and larger family size had a significant effect on accelerating time to immune deterioration.ConclusionMulti-state modelling of transition-specific distributions offers a flexible tool for the study of demographic and clinical characteristics’ effects on the entire disease progression pathway. It is hoped that the article will help applied researchers to familiarize themselves with the models, including interpretation of results. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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