Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic
| Autor: | Erik D. Surface, Taylor Chin, Kamran Khan, James A. Hay, Michael J. Mina, Caroline O. Buckee, Alexander Watts, Tigist F. Menkir, Ada W. C. Yan, Ryan Sherbo, Pablo Martinez de Salazar, Marc Lipsitch, Rene Niehus |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Mainland China
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak China Aircraft Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemiology Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Science prevalence 030231 tropical medicine General Physics and Astronomy Destinations General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology Article 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine flight data Pandemic Health care Computational models Humans travel ban 030212 general & internal medicine Socioeconomics Pandemics Travel Multidisciplinary outbreak Extramural SARS-CoV-2 business.industry Exportation Outbreak COVID-19 Wuhan China underdetection General Chemistry Models Theoretical 3. Good health Geography Viral infection Africa business Early phase |
| Zdroj: | medRxiv article-version (status) pre article-version (number) 2 Nature Communications Nature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021) |
| DOI: | 10.1101/2020.03.23.20038331 |
| Popis: | Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, predictions of international outbreaks were largely based on imported cases from Wuhan, China, potentially missing imports from other cities. We provide a method, combining daily COVID-19 prevalence and flight passenger volume, to estimate importations from 18 Chinese cities to 43 international destinations, including 26 in Africa. Global case importations from China in early January came primarily from Wuhan, but the inferred source shifted to other cities in mid-February, especially for importations to African destinations. We estimate that 10.4 (6.2 – 27.1) COVID-19 cases were imported to these African destinations, which exhibited marked variation in their magnitude and main sources of importation. We estimate that 90% of imported cases arrived between 17 January and 7 February, prior to the first case detections. Our results highlight the dynamic role of source locations, which can help focus surveillance and response efforts. Sparse testing early in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic hinders estimation of the dates and origins of initial case importations. Here, the authors show that the main source of cases imported from China shifted from Wuhan to other Chinese cities by mid-February, especially for African locations. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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