Predicting AH1N1 2009 influenza epidemic in Southeast Europe

Autor: Ankica Smoljanović, Mladen Smoljanović, Marijana Mlikotić
Rok vydání: 2011
Předmět:
Zdroj: Croatian Medical Journal
ISSN: 1332-8166
0353-9504
DOI: 10.3325/cmj.2011.52.115
Popis: Aim To use the data on the AH1N1 2009 influenza epidemic in the Southern hemisphere countries to predict the course and size of the upcoming influenza epidemic in South-Eastern Europe (SEE) countries and other regions of the World with temperate climate. Method We used a comparative epidemiological method to evaluate accessible electronic data on laboratory-confirmed deaths from AH1N1 2009 influenza in the seasons 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. The studied SEE countries were Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia, while Southern hemisphere countries were Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, Paraguay, Uruguay, and South Africa. Results In influenza season 2009/2010, Southern hemisphere countries with temperate climate reported 1187 laboratory-confirmed influenza AH1N1 2009 deaths (mortality rate 0.84/100 000; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-1.24). SEE countries with similar climatic conditions reported 659 deaths and similar mortality rates (0.86/100 000, 95% CI, 0.83-1.10). In the whole Europe without the Commonwealth of Independent States countries (CIS, former Soviet Union), there were 3213 deaths (0.60/100 000; 95% CI, 0.65-0.93). In 2010/2011, Southern hemisphere countries reported 94 laboratory-confirmed deaths (mortality rate 0.07/100 000; 95% CI, 0.02-0.28) or only 7.9% of the previous season. SEE countries by the end of the 11th epidemiological week of 2010/2011 season reported 489 laboratory-confirmed deaths, with a mortality rate of 0.64/100 000 (95% CI, 0.26-0.96) or 74.2% of the previous season, which was significantly higher than in the Southern hemisphere countries (χ21 = 609.1, P
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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