Modelling the economic impact of three lameness causing diseases using herd and cow level evidence
| Autor: | Søren Dinesen Østergaard, Anders Ringgaard Kristensen, Jehan Frans Ettema |
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| Rok vydání: | 2009 |
| Předmět: |
Male
medicine.medical_specialty Veterinary medicine Hoof and Claw Lameness Lameness Animal Prevalence Specific risk Cattle Diseases Biology Foot Diseases Food Animals Risk Factors Hyper-distributions Environmental health medicine Dairy cattle Animals Preventive healthcare Stochastic Processes Incidence Digital dermatitis Stochastic simulation Bayes Theorem medicine.disease Econometric model Dairying Herd Costs and Cost Analysis Animal Science and Zoology Cattle Female Risk assessment |
| Zdroj: | Ettema, J F, Østergaard, S & Kristensen, A R 2010, ' Modelling the economic impact of three lameness causing diseases using herd and cow level evidence ', Preventive Veterinary Medicine, vol. 95, pp. 64-73 . |
| ISSN: | 1873-1716 |
| Popis: | Udgivelsesdato: 2. marts 2010 Diseases to the cow's hoof, interdigital skin and legs are highly prevalent and of large economic impact in modern dairy farming. In order to support farmer's decisions on preventing and treating lameness and its underlying causes, decision support models can be used to predict the economic profitability of such actions. An existing approach of modelling lameness as one health disorder in a dynamic, stochastic and mechanistic simulation model has been improved in two ways. First of all, three underlying diseases causing lameness were modelled: digital dermatitis, interdigital hyperplasia and claw horn diseases. Secondly, the existing simulation model was set-up inwaythat it uses hyper-distributions describing diseases risk of the three lameness causing diseases. By combining information on herd level risk factors with prevalence of lameness or prevalence of underlying diseases among cows, marginal posterior probability distributions for disease prevalence in the specific herd are created in a Bayesian network. Random draws from these distributions are used by the simulation model to describe disease risk. Hereby field data on prevalence is used systematically and uncertainty around herd specific risk is represented. Besides the fact that estimated profitability of halving disease risk depended on the hyper-distributions used, the estimates differed for herds with different levels of diseases risk and reproductive efficiency. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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