Rare Event Simulation for Dynamic Fault Trees
| Autor: | Ruijters, Enno J.J., Reijsbergen, D.P., de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk, Stoelinga, Mariëlle I.A., Tonetta, Stefano, Schoitsch, Erwin, Bitsch, Friedemann |
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| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Fault tree analysis
021103 operations research Exploit Computer science Reliability (computer networking) Real-time computing Monte Carlo method 0211 other engineering and technologies Parameterized complexity 020207 software engineering 02 engineering and technology 13. Climate action 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Rare events Dependability Algorithm Importance sampling |
| Zdroj: | Lecture Notes in Computer Science ISBN: 9783319662657 SAFECOMP Computer Safety, Reliability, and Security: 36th International Conference, SAFECOMP 2017, Trento, Italy, September 13-15, 2017, Proceedings, 20-35 STARTPAGE=20;ENDPAGE=35;TITLE=Computer Safety, Reliability, and Security |
| DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-319-66266-4_2 |
| Popis: | Fault trees (FT) are a popular industrial method for reliability engineering, for which Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique to estimate common dependability metrics, such as the system reliability and availability. A severe drawback of Monte Carlo simulation is that the number of simulations required to obtain accurate estimations grows extremely large in the presence of rare events, i.e., events whose probability of occurrence is very low, which typically holds for failures in highly reliable systems. This paper presents a novel method for rare event simulation of dynamic fault trees with complex repairs that requires only a modest number of simulations, while retaining statistically justified confidence intervals. Our method exploits the importance sampling technique for rare event simulation, together with a compositional state space generation method for dynamic fault trees. We demonstrate our approach using two parameterized sets of case studies, showing that our method can handle fault trees that could not be evaluated with either existing analytical techniques, nor with standard simulation techniques. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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