Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations
| Autor: | T. A. Buishand, S. C. van Pelt, Pavel Kabat, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, J. Beersma |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
rijn
Climate change generalized pareto distribution river rhine precipitation lcsh:Technology lcsh:TD1-1066 Forest and Nature Conservation Policy Earth System Science models Generalized Pareto distribution discharge Range (statistics) river thames Bos- en Natuurbeleid change impacts Precipitation lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering lcsh:Environmental sciences modellen tall tales lcsh:GE1-350 catchment hydrology multisite simulation projections climatic change Flood myth lcsh:T ensemble afvoer lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation temperature klimaatverandering uncertainties Catchment hydrology neerslag lcsh:G Greenhouse gas Climatology hydrologie van stroomgebieden Environmental science Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde Climate model europe |
| Zdroj: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16 (2012) 12 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(12), 4517-4530 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 16, Iss 12, Pp 4517-4530 (2012) |
| ISSN: | 1607-7938 1027-5606 |
| Popis: | Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available Global Climate Model (GCM) or Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better picture of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias corrected RCM simulations of the 1971–2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES) were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961–1995) precipitation/temperature time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. Time series resampling was applied to extend 35-yr GCM and RCM time-slices to 3000-yr series to estimate extreme precipitation with return periods up to 1000 yr. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also resulted in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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