A NEW INFERENCE STRATEGY FOR GENERAL POPULATION MORTALITY TABLES
| Autor: | Alexandre Boumezoued, Paulien Jeunesse, Marc Hoffmann |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | R&D, Milliman, Paris, Milliman, CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision (CEREMADE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Economics and Econometrics
JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General/C.C1.C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General Population Inference [QFIN.RM]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Risk Management [q-fin.RM] general population 01 natural sciences 010104 statistics & probability cohort effect Accounting Statistics population dynamics Statistical inference Mortality tables 0101 mathematics education JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C0 - General/C.C0.C02 - Mathematical Methods Mathematics [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] education.field_of_study Mortality rate 010102 general mathematics Estimator Cohort effect Life table Finance statistical inference |
| Zdroj: | ASTIN Bulletin. 50:325-356 |
| ISSN: | 1783-1350 0515-0361 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/asb.2020.5 |
| Popis: | We propose a new inference strategy for general population mortality tables based on annual population and death estimates, completed by monthly birth counts. We rely on a deterministic population dynamics model and establish formulas that link the death rates to be estimated with the observables at hand. The inference algorithm takes the form of a recursive and implicit scheme for computing death rate estimates. This paper demonstrates both theoretically and numerically the efficiency of using additional monthly birth counts for appropriately computing annual mortality tables. As a main result, the improved mortality estimators show better features, including the fact that previous anomalies in the form of isolated cohort effects disappear, which confirms from a mathematical perspective the previous contributions by Richards, Cairns et al., and Boumezoued. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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