Malaria Transmission and Spillover across the Peru-Ecuador Border: A Spatiotemporal Analysis
| Autor: | Mark Janko, Cristina G. Recalde-Coronel, Rani E Kumar, Carlos Mena, Andree Valle-Campos, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Annika K Gunderson, Luis Vasco, William Pan, Andres G. Lescano |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Latin Americans
spillover Bayesian methods Health Toxicology and Mutagenesis 030231 tropical medicine malaria lcsh:Medicine Article law.invention 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Spatio-Temporal Analysis Malaria transmission Spillover effect law parasitic diseases Peru medicine Humans human mobility Socioeconomics 030304 developmental biology 0303 health sciences Amazon rainforest Logging lcsh:R Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Bayes Theorem medicine.disease Livelihood Geography Transmission (mechanics) spatiotemporal modeling Ecuador Malaria geographic locations |
| Zdroj: | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 17, Iss 7434, p 7434 (2020) Volume 17 Issue 20 |
| ISSN: | 1660-4601 |
| Popis: | Border regions have been implicated as important hot spots of malaria transmission, particularly in Latin America, where free movement rights mean that residents can cross borders using just a national ID. Additionally, rural livelihoods largely depend on short-term migrants traveling across borders via the Amazon&rsquo s river networks to work in extractive industries, such as logging. As a result, there is likely considerable spillover across country borders, particularly along the border between Peru and Ecuador. This border region exhibits a steep gradient of transmission intensity, with Peru having a much higher incidence of malaria than Ecuador. In this paper, we integrate 13 years of weekly malaria surveillance data collected at the district level in Peru and the canton level in Ecuador, and leverage hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal regression models to identify the degree to which malaria transmission in Ecuador is influenced by transmission in Peru. We find that increased case incidence in Peruvian districts that border the Ecuadorian Amazon is associated with increased incidence in Ecuador. Our results highlight the importance of coordinated malaria control across borders. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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