Uncertainty in risk of highway bridges assessed for integrated seismic and flood hazards
| Autor: | Taner Yilmaz, Peggy A. Johnson, Swagata Banerjee |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Özyeğin University, Yilmaz, Taner |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Risk
fragility curves 0211 other engineering and technologies INFRASTRUCTURE 020101 civil engineering Ocean Engineering REINFORCED-CONCRETE BRIDGES 02 engineering and technology Civil engineering 0201 civil engineering MULTIPLE HAZARDS Fragility probabilistic risk assessment sensitivity analysis Natural hazard EARTHQUAKE Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Risk management Uncertainty analysis Civil and Structural Engineering Fragility curves 021110 strategic defence & security studies FOUNDATION Flood myth Probabilistic risk assessment business.industry Mechanical Engineering Building and Construction PERFORMANCE Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology uncertainties SCOUR Uncertainties Highway bridges NETWORKS multi-hazard scenario Multi-hazard scenario 13. Climate action RELIABILITY Environmental science Tornado Sensitivity analysis business Risk assessment highway bridges RESISTANCE |
| Zdroj: | IndraStra Global. |
| ISSN: | 2381-3652 |
| Popis: | Due to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription. Probabilistic risk assessment for bridges under natural hazards is of great interest to engineers for the development of risk mitigation strategies and implementation plans. The present study evaluates risk of an existing highway bridge in California, USA, under the integrated impact of regional seismic and flood hazards. A sensitivity study combining tornado diagram and first-order second moment reliability analyses is conducted to screen significant uncertain parameters to which bridge response is mostly sensitive. A rigorous uncertainty analysis, employing random sampling and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, is performed to obtain variations in fragility and risk curves of the bridge. Observed variations in risk curves at various risk levels are quantified through 90% confidence intervals and coefficients of variation (COV) of risk. It is observed that uncertainty in the estimated risk increases due to the presence of flood hazard at the bridge site, although mean risk does not vary with flood hazard level. Research outcome signifies that the variation in risk due to parameter uncertainty and varied flood hazard level should not be ignored to ensure bridge safety under the stated multi-hazard condition. National Science Foundation (NSF) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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