Can Famine Be Averted? A Spatiotemporal Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the Luvuvhu River Catchment of South Africa
Autor: | Guy M. Robinson, Geoffrey Mukwada, Sabelo Marvin Mazibuko, Mokhele Edmond Moeletsi |
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Přispěvatelé: | Mukwada, Geoffrey [0000-0003-3159-9717], Moeletsi, Mokhele [0000-0003-3932-5569], Robinson, Guy M [0000-0003-1652-6456], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2021 |
Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
0208 environmental biotechnology Climate change 3304 Urban and Regional Planning 02 engineering and technology 41 Environmental Sciences 3301 Architecture 01 natural sciences Normalized Difference Vegetation Index South Africa Precipitation normalised difference vegetation index 33 Built Environment and Design 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Nature and Landscape Conservation Global and Planetary Change Food security Luvuvhu River Catchment Area Ecology Land use business.industry climate indices 15 Life on Land 4104 Environmental Management land use Agriculture Vegetation 020801 environmental engineering Geography vegetation condition index vegetation indices Famine Physical geography business |
Zdroj: | Land Volume 10 Issue 5 Land, Vol 10, Iss 527, p 527 (2021) |
ISSN: | 2073-445X |
DOI: | 10.3390/land10050527 |
Popis: | Climate change has proved to be a threat to food security the world over. Using temperature and precipitation data, this paper examines the differential effects climate change has on different land uses in the Luvuvhu river catchment in South Africa. The paper uses the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), which were calculated from Landsat images, and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for a sample of years between 1980 and 2016 to assess how drought and flood frequency have affected the agricultural environment. The results indicate that the lowest SPI values were recorded in 1996/1997, 2001/2002 and 2014/2015, suggesting the occurrence of drought during these years, while the highest SPI values were recorded in 1997/1998, 2002/2003 and 2004/2005. The relationship between three-month SPI (SPI_3) and VCI was strongest in grassland, and subsistence farming areas with the correlation coefficients of 0.8166 (p = 0.0022) and −0.6172 (p = 0.0431), respectively, indicating that rainfall variability had a high negative impact on vegetation health in those land uses with shallow-rooted plants. The findings of this study are relevant to disaster management planning in South Africa, as well as development of farming response strategies for coping with climate hazards in the country. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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