A spatiotemporal model to assess the introduction risk of African horse sickness by import of animals and vectors in France

Autor: Céline Faverjon, Pascal Hendrikx, Egil A.J. Fischer, C.J. de Vos, Agnès Leblond, A.A. de Koeijer, Thomas Balenghien
Přispěvatelé: Unité de recherche d'Épidémiologie Animale (UEA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Épidémiologie des Maladies Animales et Zoonotiques - UMR 346 (EPIA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS), Direction scientifique des laboratoires – unité Survepi, Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail (ANSES), Contrôle des maladies animales exotiques et émergentes (UMR CMAEE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Central Veterinary Institute, Unité de Recherche d'Épidémiologie Animale (UR EpiA), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)
Rok vydání: 2014
Předmět:
Veterinary medicine
Midge
Import risk assessment
Disease
Peste équine africaine
L73 - Maladies des animaux
Ceratopogonidae
Diagnostics & Crisis Organization
Risk Factors
African Horse Sickness
Analyse du risque
Facteur de risque
bluetongue
2. Zero hunger
Animal biology
Transport d'animaux
biology
Diagnostiek & Crisisorganisatie
[SDV.BA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Animal biology
Commerce
afrique
Culicoides
General Medicine
E71 - Commerce international
Importation
african horse sickness
equine movements
import risk assessment
risk of introduction
culicoides
quantitative risk
midge
3. Good health
horse
Vecteur de maladie
Regional variation
African horse sickness
Livestock
Viral disease
europe
L72 - Organismes nuisibles des animaux
Modèle mathématique
Research Article
analyse spatiotemporelle
virus
Models
Biological
élevage équin
Environmental health
Biologie animale
Animals
General Veterinary
Equine movements
business.industry
enzootics
fièvre catarrhale ovine
Risk of introduction
Quantitative risk
Equidae
biology.organism_classification
veterinary(all)
infection
Vector (epidemiology)
WIAS
Cattle
cheval
endémie
business
Zdroj: BMC Veterinary Research
BMC Veterinary Research, 11(1)
BMC Veterinary Research (11), . (2015)
BMC Veterinary Research, BioMed Central, 2015, 11, ⟨10.1186/s12917-015-0435-4⟩
BMC Veterinary Research 11 (2015) 1
ISSN: 1746-6148
DOI: 10.1186/s12917-015-0435-4⟩
Popis: Background African horse sickness (AHS) is a major, Culicoides-borne viral disease in equines whose introduction into Europe could have dramatic consequences. The disease is considered to be endemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Recent introductions of other Culicoides-borne viruses (bluetongue and Schmallenberg) into northern Europe have highlighted the risk that AHS may arrive in Europe as well. The aim of our study was to provide a spatiotemporal quantitative risk model of AHS introduction into France. The study focused on two pathways of introduction: the arrival of an infectious host (PW-host) and the arrival of an infectious Culicoides midge via the livestock trade (PW-vector). The risk of introduction was calculated by determining the probability of an infectious animal or vector entering the country and the probability of the virus then becoming established: i.e., the virus’s arrival in France resulting in at least one local equine host being infected by one local vector. This risk was assessed using data from three consecutive years (2010 to 2012) for 22 regions in France. Results The results of the model indicate that the annual risk of AHS being introduced to France is very low but that major spatiotemporal differences exist. For both introduction pathways, risk is higher from July to October and peaks in July. In general, regions with warmer climates are more at risk, as are colder regions with larger equine populations; however, regional variation in animal importation patterns (number and species) also play a major role in determining risk. Despite the low probability that AHSV is present in the EU, intra-EU trade of equines contributes most to the risk of AHSV introduction to France because it involves a large number of horse movements. Conclusion It is important to address spatiotemporal differences when assessing the risk of ASH introduction and thus also when implementing efficient surveillance efforts. The methods and results of this study may help develop surveillance techniques and other risk reduction measures that will prevent the introduction of AHS or minimize AHS’ potential impact once introduced, both in France and the rest of Europe. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-015-0435-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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