Estimation of the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within a swine house
| Autor: | Jens Nielsen, Lasse Engbo Christiansen, T. S. Larsen, Tariq Hisham Beshara Halasa |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Veterinary medicine Every other day 040301 veterinary sciences Epidemiology Swine Biology African swine fever virus law.invention 0403 veterinary science 03 medical and health sciences law Animals African Swine Fever Economic consequences Estimation African swine fever Outbreak 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Models Theoretical biology.organism_classification Virology Original Papers African Swine Fever Virus Housing Animal United Kingdom 030104 developmental biology Infectious Diseases Transmission (mechanics) Herd |
| Zdroj: | Epidemiol Infect |
| Popis: | SUMMARYThe spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV) threatens to reach further parts of Europe. In countries with a large swine production, an outbreak of ASF may result in devastating economic consequences for the swine industry. Simulation models can assist decision makers setting up contingency plans. This creates a need for estimation of parameters. This study presents a new analysis of a previously published study. A full likelihood framework is presented including the impact of model assumptions on the estimated transmission parameters. As animals were only tested every other day, an interpretation was introduced to cover the weighted infectiousness on unobserved days for the individual animals (WIU). Based on our model and the set of assumptions, the within- and between-pen transmission parameters were estimated to βw = 1·05 (95% CI 0·62–1·72), βb = 0·46 (95% CI 0·17–1·00), respectively, and the WIU = 1·00 (95% CI 0–1). Furthermore, we simulated the spread of ASFV within a pig house using a modified SEIR-model to establish the time from infection of one animal until ASFV is detected in the herd. Based on a chosen detection limit of 2·55% equivalent to 10 dead pigs out of 360, the disease would be detected 13–19 days after introduction. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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