Assessing biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change on regional avian biodiversity

Autor: Natasha C. R. Cadenhead, Pham Van Ha, Nick Golding, Brendan A. Wintle, Tom Kompas, Simon Kapitza, Payal Bal
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
Scientific Reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Popis: Climate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical variables that drive species’ geographic distributions and indirectly through socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global consumption, production and climate. To date, no detailed analyses have been produced that assess the relative importance of, or interaction between, these direct and indirect climate change impacts on biodiversity at large scales. Here, we apply a new integrated modelling framework to quantify the relative influence of biophysical and socio-economically mediated impacts on avian species in Vietnam and Australia and we find that socio-economically mediated impacts on suitable ranges are largely outweighed by biophysical impacts. However, by translating economic futures and shocks into spatially explicit predictions of biodiversity change, we now have the power to analyse in a consistent way outcomes for nature and people of any change to policy, regulation, trading conditions or consumption trend at any scale from sub-national to global.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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