Statistical Research and Modeling of Retail Turnover in the Russian Federation
| Autor: | E. G. Repina, E.I. Sukhanova, S. Y. Shirnaeva |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Index (economics)
media_common.quotation_subject 05 social sciences forecast 050301 education Standard of living econometric model retail trade turnover lcsh:Social Sciences lcsh:H Econometric model Granger causality 0502 economics and business Unemployment Econometrics Economics Autoregressive integrated moving average Salary Time series time series 0503 education 050203 business & management media_common |
| Zdroj: | SHS Web of Conferences, Vol 71, p 02004 (2019) |
| ISSN: | 2261-2424 |
| Popis: | Retail trade turnover represents one of the most fundamental socio-economic indicators. Constant monitoring of such indicators has a pivotal role in modernization of the Russian economy. Retail trade turnover reflects countries’ economic capacity and standard of living. This paper proposes a statistically significant econometric model of the retail trade turnover dependence with respect to different factors. Such factors as consumer prices index, unemployment level and average monthly designed salary were taken as the explanatory variables. The variables were selected based on Granger causality test and time series analysis of several socio-economic indicators. For each explanatory variable, a statistically significant model ARIMA (1, 1, 0) was constructed, with the help of which the predicted values of the explanatory variables for October, November and December 2019 were calculated, which were used to forecast the retail turnover for these months. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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