Impact of weather seasonality and sexual transmission on the spread of Zika fever
| Autor: | Tamás Tekeli, Miklós Tekeli, Mahmoud A. Ibrahim, Attila Dénes, Lillian Oluoch |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Zika virus disease Male Safe Sex Sexual transmission Sexual Behavior lcsh:Medicine Disease Mosquito Vectors Biology Article Birth rate law.invention Zika virus Disease Outbreaks 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Safer sex law Aedes medicine Animals Humans 030212 general & internal medicine lcsh:Science Weather Multidisciplinary Zika Virus Infection lcsh:R Sexually Transmitted Diseases Viral Zika Virus Models Theoretical South America medicine.disease biology.organism_classification 030104 developmental biology Transmission (mechanics) Viral infection Infectious diseases Female lcsh:Q Asymptomatic carrier Demography |
| Zdroj: | Scientific Reports, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2019) Scientific Reports |
| ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
| Popis: | We establish a compartmental model to study the transmission of Zika virus disease including spread through sexual contacts and the role of asymptomatic carriers. To incorporate the impact of the seasonality of weather on the spread of Zika, we apply a nonautonomous model with time-dependent mosquito birth rate and biting rate, which allows us to explain the differing outcome of the epidemic in different countries of South America: using Latin Hypercube Sampling for fitting, we were able to reproduce the different outcomes of the disease in various countries. Sensitivity analysis shows that, although the most important factors in Zika transmission are the birth rate of mosquitoes and the transmission rate from mosquitoes to humans, spread through sexual contacts also highly contributes to the transmission of Zika virus: our study suggests that the practice of safe sex among those who have possibly contracted the disease, can significantly reduce the number of Zika cases. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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