Identifying the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy using newspaper coverage
Autor: | Laudati, Dario, Pesaran, M. Hashem |
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Přispěvatelé: | Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
Rok vydání: | 2023 |
Předmět: |
General Economics (econ.GN)
Newspaper coverage identification of direct and indirect effects of sanctions education 38 Economics gender bias FOS: Economics and business 3801 Applied Economics health services administration secondary education ddc:330 F51 E31 exchange rate depreciation and inflation health care economics and organizations Economics - General Economics F53 O53 newspaper coverage O11 O19 and gender bias social sciences humanities 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth Iran output growth labor force participation and employment 3802 Econometrics F43 E65 |
Popis: | Summary: This paper focuses on the identification and quantitative estimation of sanctions on the Iranian economy over the period 1989–2019. It provides a new time series approach and proposes a novel measure of sanctions intensity based on daily newspaper coverage. In absence of sanctions, Iran's average annual growth could have been around 4–5%, as compared to the 3% realized. Estimates of the proposed sanctions‐augmented structural VAR show that sanctions significantly decrease oil export revenues and result in substantial depreciation of Iranian rial, followed by subsequent increases in inflation and falls in output growth. Keeping other shocks fixed, 2 years of sanctions can explain up to 60% of output growth forecast error variance, although a single quarter sanction shock proves to have quantitatively small effects. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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