Economic Impact of Energy Consumption Change Caused by Global Warming
| Autor: | Kenneth B. Gregory, Peter A. Lang |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Empirical data
Global energy Control and Optimization Natural resource economics 020209 energy Energy Engineering and Power Technology Climate change 02 engineering and technology global warming lcsh:Technology energy consumption economic impacts climate change empirical data impact function damage function FUND 0502 economics and business 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Economics Economic impact analysis 050207 economics Electrical and Electronic Engineering Empirical evidence Engineering (miscellaneous) Consumption (economics) Global temperature lcsh:T Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment 05 social sciences Global warming Energy impact Energy consumption Greenhouse gas Energy (miscellaneous) |
| Zdroj: | Energies; Volume 12; Issue 18; Pages: 3575 Energies, Vol 12, Iss 18, p 3575 (2019) |
| ISSN: | 1556-5068 |
| Popis: | This paper tests the validity of the FUND model’s energy impact functions, and the hypothesis that global warming of 2 °C or more above pre-industrial times would negatively impact the global economy. Empirical data of energy expenditure and average temperatures of the US states and census divisions are compared with projections using the energy impact functions with non-temperature drivers held constant at their 2010 values. The empirical data indicates that energy expenditure decreases as temperatures increase, suggesting that global warming, by itself, may reduce US energy expenditure and thereby have a positive impact on US economic growth. These findings are then compared with FUND energy impact projections for the world at 3 °C of global warming from 2000. The comparisons suggest that warming, by itself, may reduce global energy consumption. If these findings are correct, and if FUND projections for the non-energy impact sectors are valid, 3 °C of global warming from 2000 would increase global economic growth. In this case, the hypothesis is false and policies to reduce global warming are detrimental to the global economy. We recommend the FUND energy impact functions be modified and recalibrated against best available empirical data. Our analysis and conclusions warrant further investigation. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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