Investing in antibiotics to alleviate future catastrophic outcomes: What is the value of having an effective antibiotic to mitigate pandemic influenza?
| Autor: | Ramanan Laxminarayan, Tim Bedford, Alexander David Morton, Itamar Megiddo, Dusan Drabik, Justus Wesseler |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
medicine.medical_specialty
Biomedical Research pandemic influenza real options analysis medicine.drug_class Secondary infection secondary bacterial infections Antibiotics Disaster Planning Strategic Stockpile WASS World Health Organization medicine.disease_cause antibiotics insurance value RS Antibiotic resistance Drug Resistance Multiple Bacterial Influenza Human Pandemic Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Humans Medicine Intensive care medicine Pandemics business.industry Health Policy Pandemic influenza Agrarische Economie en Plattelandsbeleid Outbreak Bacterial Infections Models Theoretical Anti-Bacterial Agents Option value Staphylococcus aureus antibiotics resistance HD28 business |
| Zdroj: | Health Economics, 28(4), 556-571 Health Economics 28 (2019) 4 |
| ISSN: | 1057-9230 |
| DOI: | 10.1002/hec.3867 |
| Popis: | Over 95% of post-mortem samples from the 1918 pandemic, which caused 50 to 100 million deaths, showed bacterial infection complications. The introduction of antibiotics in the 1940s has since reduced the risk of bacterial infections, but growing resistance to antibiotics could increase the toll from future influenza pandemics if secondary bacterial infections are as serious as in 1918, or even if they are less severe. We develop a valuation model of the option to withhold wide use of an antibiotic until significant outbreaks such as pandemic influenza or foodborne diseases are identified. Using real options theory, we derive conditions under which withholding wide use is beneficial, and calculate the option value for influenza pandemic scenarios that lead to secondary infections with a resistant Staphylococcus aureus strain. We find that the value of withholding an effective novel oral antibiotic can be positive and significant unless the pandemic is mild and causes few secondary infections with the resistant strain or if most patients can be treated intravenously. Although the option value is sensitive to parameter uncertainty, our results suggest that further analysis on a case-by-case basis could guide investment in novel agents as well as strategies on how to use them. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Plný text