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Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 20(2), 1993, pp. 153-191. Towards Measuring Uncertainty in Estimates of Intercensal Net Migration Hallie J. Kintner General Motors Research Laboratories David A. Swanson University of Arkansas at Little Rock Abstract We present a system for generating confidence intervals around estimates of intercensal net‘ migration made using the life table survival method. The life table survival method applies a life table to a census count to project survivors at‘ some past or future time points. Net migration is the difference between the projected number of survivors and the _enumerated population. Confidence intervals for net migrants in an age-sex group are based on the probability distributionof deaths. They can be adjusted when a life table is unavailable for the population in question. The techniqueis illustrated with data from Puerto Rico; New Jersey, and Alaska. Resume Nous presentons un systeme permettant de generer des intervalles de confiance autour des valeurs estimatives de qla migration nette intercensitaire a l'aide d'une methode utilisant la table de survie. Cette methode applique une table de survie aux resultats d'un recensement afin de projeter le nombre de survivants a 1m point donne du passe ou de 1'avenir. * La migration nette est la difference entre le nombre projete de survivants et la population recensee. Les intervalles de confiance pour la migration nette dans un groupe d'age—sexe sont fondes sur la distribution des probabilites de deces. lls peuvent etre ajustes quand on ne dispose pas d'une table de vie pour la population en question. La technique est illustree a l'aide de donnees venant de Porto Rico, du New Jersey et de ]'Alaska. Key Words: migration, confidence intervals Introduction This paper presents a system for developing confidence intervalsiaround estimated net migrants, when the estimates are made using the life table survival method (Shyrock and Siegel, 1976), which has been one of the most 153 |
