Advancing Hazard Assessment of Energy Accidents in the Natural Gas Sector with Rough Set Theory and Decision Rules
| Autor: | Peter Burgherr, Miłosz Kadziński, Matteo Spada, Marco Cinelli, Grzegorz Miebs |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Decision support system
Control and Optimization decision support Process (engineering) 020209 energy Energy Engineering and Power Technology 02 engineering and technology 010501 environmental sciences Hazard analysis 01 natural sciences lcsh:Technology hazard assessment Accident (fallacy) energy accidents rough sets classification 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Electrical and Electronic Engineering Engineering (miscellaneous) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment lcsh:T Decision rule Hazard Risk analysis (engineering) Rough set Business Energy accidents Energy (miscellaneous) |
| Zdroj: | Energies, Vol 12, Iss 21, p 4178 (2019) Energies; Volume 12; Issue 21; Pages: 4178 |
| ISSN: | 1996-1073 |
| Popis: | The impacts of energy accidents are of primary interest for risk and resilience analysts, decision makers, and the general public. They can cause human health and environmental impacts, economic and societal losses, which justifies the interest in developing models to mitigate these adverse outcomes. We present a classification model for sorting energy accidents in the natural gas sector into hazard classes, according to their potential fatalities. The model is built on decision rules, which are knowledge blocks in the form of “if (condition), then (classification to hazard class x)”. They were extracted by the rough sets method using natural gas accident data from 1970–2016 of the Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) of the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), the most authoritative information source for accidents in the energy sector. This was the first attempt to explore the relationships between the descriptors of energy accidents and the consequence (fatalities). The model was applied to a set of hypothetical accidents to show how the decision-making process could be supported when there is an interest in knowing which class (i.e., low, medium, high) of fatalities an energy accident could cause. The successful use of this approach in the natural gas sector proves that it can be also adapted for other energy chains, such as oil and coal. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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