The impact of control strategies and behavioural changes on the elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia
| Autor: | Nico Heijenberg, Etienne Gignoux, Iza Ciglenecki, Philippe Azuma, Esther Sterk, Sebastian Funk, Tamba Alpha, Amanda Tiffany, Josephus Bolongei, Reeder B, Adam J. Kucharski, William John Edmunds, Rosalind M Eggo, Peter Clement, Anton Camacho, Telfer B, Motoi Suzuki, Lucy Anne Parker, Engel G |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
medicine.medical_specialty
030231 tropical medicine Psychological intervention community engagement General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology law.invention West africa 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine law Health care medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine Disease Eradication Transmission intensity Epidemics Socioeconomics interventions infectious disease dynamics Community engagement business.industry Public health behavioural changes Outbreak Articles Hemorrhagic Fever Ebola Models Theoretical Patient Acceptance of Health Care Liberia 3. Good health Transmission (mechanics) Geography Public Health General Agricultural and Biological Sciences business isolation mathematical model Research Article |
| Zdroj: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
| ISSN: | 0962-8436 |
| Popis: | The Ebola epidemic in West Africa was stopped by an enormous concerted effort of local communities and national and international organizations. It is not clear, however, how much the public health response and behavioural changes in affected communities, respectively, contributed to ending the outbreak. Here, we analyse the epidemic in Lofa County, Liberia, lasting from March to November 2014, by reporting a comprehensive time line of events and estimating the time-varying transmission intensity using a mathematical model of Ebola transmission. Model fits to the epidemic show an alternation of peaks and troughs in transmission, consistent with highly heterogeneous spread. This is combined with an overall decline in the reproduction number of Ebola transmission from early August, coinciding with an expansion of the local Ebola treatment centre. We estimate that healthcare seeking approximately doubled over the course of the outbreak, and that isolation of those seeking healthcare reduced their reproduction number by 62% (mean estimate, 95% credible interval (CI) 59–66). Both expansion of bed availability and improved healthcare seeking contributed to ending the epidemic, highlighting the importance of community engagement alongside clinical intervention. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control’. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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