Models predict planned phosphorus load reduction will make Lake Erie more toxic

Autor:	Ferdi L. Hellweger, Robbie M. Martin, Falk Eigemann, Derek J. Smith, Gregory J. Dick, Steven W. Wilhelm
Rok vydání:	2022
Předmět:	Canada Lakes Multidisciplinary Microcystis Microcystins Nitrogen Water Supply Drinking Water Phosphorus United States
Zdroj:	Science (New York, N.Y.). 376(6596)
ISSN:	1095-9203
Popis:	Harmful cyanobacteria are a global environmental problem, yet we lack actionable understanding of toxigenic versus nontoxigenic strain ecology and toxin production. We performed a large-scale meta-analysis including 103 papers and used it to develop a mechanistic, agent-based model of Microcystis growth and microcystin production. Simulations for Lake Erie suggest that the observed toxigenic-to-nontoxigenic strain succession during the 2014 Toledo drinking water crisis was controlled by different cellular oxidative stress mitigation strategies (protection by microcystin versus degradation by enzymes) and the different susceptibility of those mechanisms to nitrogen limitation. This model, as well as a simpler empirical one, predicts that the planned phosphorus load reduction will lower biomass but make nitrogen and light more available, which will increase toxin production, favor toxigenic cells, and increase toxin concentrations.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::867aec0625500a08ba1678a141c52723 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36356131 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text ve formátu PDF Plný text ve formátu HTML
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