Modeling oil price uncertainty effects on economic growth in Mexico: a sector-level analysis

Autor: Domingo Rodríguez-Benavides, Roldán Andrés-Rosales, María de la Cruz del Río-Rama, Muhammad Irfan
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 29:73987-74002
ISSN: 1614-7499
0944-1344
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-20711-2
Popis: This paper analyzes the impact of international oil price uncertainty on the different economic sectors (primary, secondary, and tertiary) in Mexico in the period 1993:1–2020:4 through a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean to capture the impact of oil volatility on economic growth at the sectoral level of economic activity. The results show that the uncertainty of the international price of oil has a differentiated effect on the different sectors of economic activity in Mexico since it does not influence the primary sector; it negatively impacts the secondary sector, and there is mixed evidence in the tertiary sector. Additionally, evidence is provided that both positive and negative shocks to the international oil price have asymmetric effects at the sectoral level in Mexico. The results highlight the need to implement public policies, at the country level, that help mitigate the effect of uncertainty in the oil market and promote economic stability at the sector level. Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISUG
Databáze: OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz: