Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore

Autor: Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Empirical Economics. 64:2105-2124
ISSN: 1435-8921
0377-7332
DOI: 10.1007/s00181-022-02311-8
Popis: This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive performance and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the COVID-19 pandemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we use a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated by the central bank to analyse the forecasting records for GDP growth and CPI inflation for the period 2000Q1-2021Q4. We first examine the point forecasts to document the extent of forecast failure during the two crises and explore various explanations for it, such as leader-following and herding behaviour. Then, using percentile-based summary measures of probability distribution forecasts, we study how the degree of consensus and extent of subjective uncertainty among forecasters were affected by crisis conditions. A trend break is observed in the subjective uncertainty associated with growth projections after the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, both subjective uncertainty and the degree of consensus in inflation projections were essentially unchanged in crises, suggesting that the short-term inflation expectations of forecasters were strongly anchored.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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