Quantifying the dynamics of migration after Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico
| Autor: | Rafael A. Irizarry, Nishant Kishore, Caroline O. Buckee, Rolando J Acosta |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Data source
education.field_of_study Multidisciplinary Population Biology Population size Puerto Rico Population Hurricane Maria population displacement Biological Sciences Census Geography Population estimation Population displacement passively collected data Natural disaster education Air travel Demography |
| Zdroj: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
| ISSN: | 1091-6490 0027-8424 |
| Popis: | Significance Understanding the population composition and distribution of a region affected by a major natural disaster is vital for the allocation of resources to communities in need and critical to inform mortality estimates. Currently, the US Census Bureau is the only institution that publishes reliable population estimates for the United States and its territories. Since these are published once per year, it is impossible to use census-based population estimates to assess short-term postdisaster out-of-jurisdiction migration and within-jurisdiction migration. The utilization of social media traces, coupled with mobile phone data, could provide live estimates of postdisaster population changes in disaster-affected areas. Population displacement may occur after natural disasters, permanently altering the demographic composition of the affected regions. Measuring this displacement is vital for both optimal postdisaster resource allocation and calculation of measures of public health interest such as mortality estimates. Here, we analyzed data generated by mobile phones and social media to estimate the weekly island-wide population at risk and within-island geographic heterogeneity of migration in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. We compared these two data sources with population estimates derived from air travel records and census data. We observed a loss of population across all data sources throughout the study period; however, the magnitude and dynamics differ by the data source. Census data predict a population loss of just over 129,000 from July 2017 to July 2018, a 4% decrease; air travel data predict a population loss of 168,295 for the same period, a 5% decrease; mobile phone-based estimates predict a loss of 235,375 from July 2017 to May 2018, an 8% decrease; and social media-based estimates predict a loss of 476,779 from August 2017 to August 2018, a 17% decrease. On average, municipalities with a smaller population size lost a bigger proportion of their population. Moreover, we infer that these municipalities experienced greater infrastructure damage as measured by the proportion of unknown locations stemming from these regions. Finally, our analysis measures a general shift of population from rural to urban centers within the island. Passively collected data provide a promising supplement to current at-risk population estimation procedures; however, each data source has its own biases and limitations. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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