Changes of Southern Hemisphere westerlies in the future warming climate
| Autor: | Kaiqiang Deng, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Song Yang, Chundi Hu, Gangfeng Zhang, Lorenzo Minola, Deliang Chen |
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| Přispěvatelé: | National Natural Science Foundation of China, Swedish Research Council, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Fundación BBVA, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
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| Popis: | The Southern Hemisphere westerlies (SHWs) play a key role in regulating global climate and ocean circulation, but their future changes under low to high greenhouse gas forcings remain unclear. This study investigates the long-term trends in strength and position of the SHWs and their linkage with human activities, based on the ERA5 reanalysis and model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The results show that the SHWs have intensified and shifted poleward in the recent decades, and are projected to experience divergent trends in strength and position during the 21st century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Forced by SSP245, 370, and 585, which represent the middle to high greenhouse gas forcings, the SHWs will continue to strengthen and move southward in 2015–2099, with the largest trends induced by SSP585. Nevertheless, forced by SSP126, which implies a low greenhouse gas forcing in the future, the ongoing trends in strength and position of the SHWs will be interrupted and even reversed. Further investigation reveals that the anthropogenic forcing could have affected and will likely influence the SHWs by modulating meridional atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. In particular, the Southern Annular Mode and the tropical Pacific convection play crucial roles in the changes of SHWs. This study links human activities to the changes in SHWs, providing important implications for climate change and its mitigation. We acknowledge the supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42088101), the Swedish Research Council (VR-2017-03780 and VR-2019-03954), Ramon y Cajal Fellowship (RYC-2017-22830), the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (RTI2018-095749-A-I00), the 2021 Leonardo Grant for Researchers and Cultural Creators from the BBVA Foundation, Swedish MERGE, and BECC. This study was also supported by the Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (Grant 311020001), China Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies (Grant 2020B1212060025), and the China Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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