A short-term solar radiation forecasting system for the Iberian Peninsula. Part 2: Model blending approaches based on machine learning
| Autor: | Francisco J. Rodríguez-Benítez, Inés M. Galván, Javier Huertas-Tato, David Pozo-Vázquez, Clara Arbizu-Barrena, Ricardo Aler |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Informática
geography Single model geography.geographical_feature_category Meteorology Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment Computer science 020209 energy Horizon Context (language use) 02 engineering and technology Blending 021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology Term (time) Support vector machine DNI Peninsula Machine learning 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering General Materials Science Satellite GHI 0210 nano-technology Regional forecast |
| Zdroj: | e-Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid instname |
| ISSN: | 0038-092X |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.solener.2019.11.091 |
| Popis: | In this article we explore the blending of the four models (Satellite, WRF-Solar, Smart Persistence and CIADCast) studied in Part 1 by means of Support Vector Machines with the aim of improving GHI and DNI forecasts. Two blending approaches that use the four models as predictors have been studied: the horizon approach constructs a different blending model for each forecast horizon, while the general approach trains a single model valid for all horizons. The influence on the blending models of adding information about weather types is also studied. The approaches have been evaluated in the same four Iberian Peninsula stations of Part 1. Blending approaches have been extended to a regional context with the goal of obtaining improved regional forecasts. In general, results show that blending greatly outperforms the individual predictors, with no large differences between the blending approaches themselves. Horizon approaches were more suitable to minimize rRMSE and general approaches work better for rMAE. The relative improvement in rRMSE obtained by model blending was up to 17% for GHI (16% for DNI), and up to 15% for rMAE. Similar improvements were observed for the regional forecast. An analysis of performance depending on the horizon shows that while the advantage of blending for GHI remains more or less constant along horizons, it tends to increase with horizon for DNI, with the largest improvements occurring at 6 h. The knowledge of weather conditions helped to slightly improve further the forecasts (up to 3%), but only at some locations and for rRMSE. The authors are supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, projects ENE2014-56126-C2-1-R and ENE2014-56126-C2-2-R (http://prosol.uc3m.es). The University of Jan team are also supported by FEDER funds and by the Junta de Andalucia (Research group TEP-220).The authors are in debt with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), EUMETSAT, Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade de Lisboa, Grupo de Energa Solar of the Universidad Politcnica de Madrid and Abengoa Solar for providing the data used in this work. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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