Outbreak Size Distribution in Stochastic Epidemic Models

Autor:	Jason Hindes, Michael Assaf, Ira B. Schwartz
Rok vydání:	2022
Předmět:	Stochastic Processes SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Humans General Physics and Astronomy Epidemics Models Biological Disease Outbreaks
Zdroj:	Physical Review Letters. 128
ISSN:	1079-7114 0031-9007
DOI:	10.1103/physrevlett.128.078301
Popis:	Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with demographic noise, including the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its general extensions. In the limit of large populations, we compute the probability distribution for all extensive outbreaks, including those that entail unusually large or small (extreme) proportions of the population infected. Our approach reveals that, unlike other well-known examples of rare events occurring in discrete-state stochastic systems, the statistics of extreme outbreaks emanate from a full continuum of Hamiltonian paths, each satisfying unique boundary conditions with a conserved probability flux.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::823cc0f2685d7b2858d34e1db4c1ec50 https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.128.078301 Zobrazit plný text záznamu