Among-site variability in the stochastic dynamics of East African coral reefs
| Autor: | John F. Bruno, Tim R. McClanahan, Matthew Spencer, Damian Clancy, Katherine A. Allen, Kamila Zychaluk, Fiona Chong |
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| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
lcsh:Medicine Marine Biology Bayesian statistics 010603 evolutionary biology 01 natural sciences Spatial variability General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology Community composition 14. Life underwater Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution Reef Mathematical Biology Abiotic component geography geography.geographical_feature_category Ecology 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology General Neuroscience lcsh:R State-space model Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) Temporal variability General Medicine Coral reef Benthic zone Vector autoregressive model FOS: Biological sciences Spatial ecology Environmental science Stochastic dynamics General Agricultural and Biological Sciences Scale (map) |
| Zdroj: | PEERJ PeerJ PeerJ, Vol 5, p e3290 (2017) |
| DOI: | 10.48550/arxiv.1606.08363 |
| Popis: | Coral reefs are dynamic systems whose composition is highly influenced by unpredictable biotic and abiotic factors. Understanding the spatial scale at which long-term predictions of reef composition can be made will be crucial for guiding conservation efforts. Using a 22-year time series of benthic composition data from 20 reefs on the Kenyan and Tanzanian coast, we studied the long-term behaviour of Bayesian vector autoregressive state-space models for reef dynamics, incorporating among-site variability. We estimate that if there were no among-site variability, the total long-term variability would be approximately one third of its current value. Thus among-site variability contributes more to long-term variability in reef composition than does temporal variability. Individual sites are more predictable than previously thought, and predictions based on current snapshots are informative about long-term properties. Our approach allowed us to identify a subset of possible climate refugia sites with high conservation value, where the long-term probability of coral cover 97 pages, 49 figures |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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