Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model

Autor: Xiuwen Guo, Yang Gao, Shaoqing Zhang, Lixin Wu, Ping Chang, Wenju Cai, Jakob Zscheischler, L. Ruby Leung, Justin Small, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Luanne Thompson, Huiwang Gao
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Guo, Xiuwen; Gao, Yang; Zhang, Shaoqing; Wu, Lixin; Chang, Ping; Cai, Wenju; Zscheischler, Jakob; Leung, L Ruby; Small, Justin; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Thompson, Luanne; Gao, Huiwang (2022). Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model. Nature climate change, 12(2), pp. 179-186. Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41558-021-01266-5
ISSN: 1758-678X
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01266-5
Popis: Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a ‘future threshold’ that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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