AGU 2022: Integrating Human System Complexity into Water Supply Planning and Risk Assessment with Exploratory Modeling (invited)

Autor: Hamilton, Andrew L., Reed, Patrick M., Zeff, Harrison B., Characklis, Gregory W.
Rok vydání: 2022
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7433789
Popis: This presentation was given during the 2022 AGU Fall Meeting in Chicago, IL. Abstract: Modern water supply networks are complex 'systems of systems' in which hydrologic, engineered, and institutional systems interact across a range of spatiotemporal scales. Advances in watershed process representation, data assimilation, and distributed computing have improved hydrologic modeling in recent years, but it remains a challenge to account for human factors such as water demand, reservoir operations, regulatory institutions, infrastructure investment, and risk management. Human systems emerge through dynamic, adaptive, and distributed decision-making processes subject to conflicting management objectives and high levels of uncertainty. Water management activities often bridge spatiotemporal scales; e.g., assessing the value of groundwater recharge facilities requires modeling the fast dynamics (daily timestep or less) of high-flow events and infrastructure capacity constraints as well as the slow dynamics (multidecadal) of persistent extreme droughts, water supply/demand trends, and water users’ financial health. Water management networks are increasingly interconnected, so that decisions by individual water suppliers, users, or governing bodies can have complex effects that propagate through the network. Better representation of these factors provides a major opportunity to improve the relevance of models and results for decision-makers, but also a significant conceptual and computational challenge. This presentation will highlight efforts to address these challenges by combining detailed hydrologic-engineered-institutional system simulation models with ensemble-based exploratory modeling workflows that facilitate the discovery of high-performing and robust management policies, multi-objective tradeoffs, and consequential uncertainties. The presentation will draw first from recent research on water supply portfolios and infrastructure planning in the Central Valley of California, using the open-source California Food-Energy-Water System (CALFEWS) simulation model. We will then demonstrate how these lessons are being applied to an ongoing translational research collaboration with the USGS to understand how hydrologic and human uncertainties could impact future water availability and drought vulnerability in the Delaware River Basin.
This work was funded in part by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) INFEWS/T2 program, Award #1639268. Computing resources were provided by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Research Computing Group and the Cornell Center for Advanced Computing.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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