Optimal time to intervene: The case of measles child immunization
| Autor: | Zuzana Chladná |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Time Factors
01 natural sciences Disease Outbreaks 0302 clinical medicine Germany Medicine 030212 general & internal medicine Infectious Disease Medicine education.field_of_study Schools Health Policy Applied Mathematics Vaccination General Medicine Time optimal Europe Computational Mathematics Child Preschool Modeling and Simulation Vaccination coverage Medical emergency General Agricultural and Biological Sciences Slovakia Decision Making Population World Health Organization Measles 03 medical and health sciences Intervention (counseling) Environmental health Humans Computer Simulation 0101 mathematics education Health policy Stochastic Processes Immunization Programs business.industry 010102 general mathematics Infant Newborn Infant Models Theoretical medicine.disease United States Immunization Communicable Disease Control business |
| Zdroj: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering. 15:323-335 |
| ISSN: | 1551-0018 |
| DOI: | 10.3934/mbe.2018014 |
| Popis: | The recent measles outbreaks in US and Germany emphasize the importance of sustaining and increasing vaccination rates. In Slovakia, despite mandatory vaccination scheme, decrease in the vaccination rates against measles has been observed in recent years. Different kinds of intervention at the state level, like a law making vaccination a requirement for school entry or education and advertising seem to be the only strategies to improve vaccination coverage. This study aims to analyze the economic effectiveness of intervention in Slovakia. Using real options techniques we determine the level of vaccination rate at which it is optimal to perform intervention. We represent immunization rate of newborns as a stochastic process and intervention as a one-period jump of this process. Sensitivity analysis shows the importance of early intervention in the population with high initial average vaccination coverage. Furthermore, our numerical results demonstrate that the less certain we are about the future development of the immunization rate of newborns, the more valuable is the option to intervene. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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