Post-transitional Demography and Convergence: What Can We Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects?
| Autor: | Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna, Maria Castiglioni, Maria Letizia Tanturri |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Weak convergence
media_common.quotation_subject Total fertility rate 05 social sciences Demographic transition Convergence (economics) Fertility World population Geography 050902 family studies Order (exchange) Homogeneous 0502 economics and business Demographic economics 050207 economics 0509 other social sciences media_common |
| Zdroj: | Developments in Demographic Forecasting ISBN: 9783030424718 |
| Popis: | After the Demographic Transition, convergence towards similar fertility and mortality levels, is the prevailing hypothesis in UN World Population Prospects Revisions. This chapter questions this assumption of “weak convergence” comparing actual data with the forecasted fertility, mortality, and migration trends computed by UN over the last half century. The “weak convergence” during 1985–2015 is not confirmed in countries that had a Total Fertility Rate below 2.5 children per woman before 1985. Moreover, in the period 2000–2015 the differences between groups of homogeneous countries actually increase. Further research can identify new regularities in order to predict future trends more accurately. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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