Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk
| Autor: | Hinkel, J., Feyen, L., Hemer, M., Le Cozannet, G., Lincke, D., Marcos, M., Mentaschi, L., Merkens, J. L., de Moel, H., Muis, S., Nicholls, R. J., Vafeidis, A. T., van de Wal, R. S.W., Vousdoukas, M. I., Wahl, T., Ward, P. J., Wolff, C., Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res |
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| Přispěvatelé: | European Commission, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (Austria), Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development, Innovation Fund Denmark, German Research Foundation, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US), Dutch Research Council, Australian Government, Water and Climate Risk, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Hinkel J., Feyen L., Hemer M., Le Cozannet G., Lincke D., Marcos M., Mentaschi L., Merkens J.L., de Moel H., Muis S., Nicholls R.J., Vafeidis A.T., van de Wal R.S.W., Vousdoukas M.I., Wahl T., Ward P.J., Wolff C. |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
0211 other engineering and technologies Vulnerability 02 engineering and technology Debris Flow and Landslides Biogeosciences 01 natural sciences Volcanic Effects Global Change from Geodesy Volcanic Hazards and Risks Oceans Sea Level Change Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) GE1-350 extreme event Coastal flood Disaster Risk Analysis and Assessment QH540-549.5 General Environmental Science geography.geographical_feature_category Environmental resource management Climate and Interannual Variability Climate Impact Earthquake Ground Motions and Engineering Seismology Explosive Volcanism Earth System Modeling Atmospheric Processes Tropical cyclone Ocean Monitoring with Geodetic Techniques Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions Atmospheric Regional Modeling Atmospheric Effects extreme events Floodplain Volcanology Hydrological Cycles and Budgets Decadal Ocean Variability Land/Atmosphere Interactions storm surge Geodesy and Gravity Global Change SDG 14 - Life Below Water Air/Sea Interactions Numerical Modeling Solid Earth 021110 strategic defence & security studies Geological Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions Water Cycles Elevation Modeling Avalanches Volcano Seismology sea-level rise Benefit‐cost Analysis Greenhouse gas Computational Geophysics Regional Climate Change Natural Hazards Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change Informatics Surface Waves and Tides Atmospheric Composition and Structure Volcano Monitoring Environmental Science(all) Hydrological Surge uncertainty Seismology Climatology Ecology Radio Oceanography Coastal Processes Gravity and Isostasy Marine Geology and Geophysics Physical Modeling Oceanography: General Cryosphere Impacts of Global Change Oceanography: Physical Research Article Risk Oceanic Theoretical Modeling Storm surge Radio Science Tsunamis and Storm Surges Paleoceanography Climate Dynamics waves 14. Life underwater 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Numerical Solutions Climate Change and Variability geography Effusive Volcanism Drought business.industry Climate Variability coastal flooding General Circulation Policy Sciences Climate Impacts Floods Mud Volcanism Environmental sciences Air/Sea Constituent Fluxes Mass Balance Ocean influence of Earth rotation 13. Climate action Volcano/Climate Interactions Environmental science sea‐level rise Hydrology business Sea Level: Variations and Mean |
| Zdroj: | Hinkel, J, Feyen, L, Hemer, M, Le Cozannet, G, Lincke, D, Marcos, M, Mentaschi, L, Merkens, J L, de Moel, H, Muis, S, Nicholls, R J, Vafeidis, A T, van de Wal, R S W, Vousdoukas, M I, Wahl, T, Ward, P J & Wolff, C 2021, ' Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk ', Earth's Future, vol. 9, no. 7, e2020EF001882 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001882 Earth's Future, 9(7), 1. Wiley Earth's Future, 9(7):e2020EF001882. AGU Earth's Future Earth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 7, Pp n/a-n/a (2021) Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC instname |
| ISSN: | 2328-4277 |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2020EF001882 |
| Popis: | This study provides a literature‐based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world‐regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea‐level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea‐level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio‐economic development (factors 2.3–5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2–3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6–3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6–2.1). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth‐damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea‐levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state‐of‐the‐art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth‐damage functions would be best reduced through open community‐based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data. Key Points We present the first comparison of uncertainties in global to world‐regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood riskThe largest uncertainty relates to future coastal adaptation, which can influence future coastal flood risk by factors of 20–27Uncertainties in socioeconomic development, elevation data, defense levels, emissions and ice sheets can affect risks by factors of 2–6 |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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