A Bayesian method with empirically fitted priors for the evaluation of environmental radioactivity: application to low-level radioxenon measurements
| Autor: | Clément Fabbri, Isabelle Rivals, X. Blanchard, Guillaume Euvrard |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Equipe de Statistique Appliquée (UMRS 1158) (ESA), Ecole Superieure de Physique et de Chimie Industrielles de la Ville de Paris (ESPCI Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Neurophysiologie Respiratoire Expérimentale et Clinique, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Sorbonne Université (SU), CEA, Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Rivals, Isabelle, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Neurophysiologie Respiratoire Expérimentale et Clinique (UMRS 1158) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2012 |
| Předmět: |
Computer science
[PHYS.NEXP] Physics [physics]/Nuclear Experiment [nucl-ex] Health Toxicology and Mutagenesis Bayesian probability Interval (mathematics) radioactive xenon [PHYS.NEXP]Physics [physics]/Nuclear Experiment [nucl-ex] 010502 geochemistry & geophysics 010403 inorganic & nuclear chemistry Bayesian statistics 01 natural sciences Analytical Chemistry [STAT.AP] Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] Statistics Prior probability Radiology Nuclear Medicine and imaging radioactivity detection Spectroscopy 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Statistical hypothesis testing environmental monitoring [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] fitted prior a priori knowledge Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Decision problem Pollution Confidence interval 0104 chemical sciences Nuclear Energy and Engineering Marginal distribution Algorithm CTBT |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry, Springer Verlag, 2012, 292 (1), pp.141-153 Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry, 2012, 292 (1), pp.141-153 |
| ISSN: | 0236-5731 1588-2780 |
| Popis: | International audience; The decision that a given detection level corresponds to the effective presence of a radionuclide is still widely made on the basis of a classic hypothesis test. However, the classic framework suffers several drawbacks, such as the conceptual and practical impossibility to provide a probability of zero radioactivity, and confidence intervals for the true activity level that are likely to contain negative and hence meaningless values. The Bayesian framework being potentially able to overcome these drawbacks, several attempts have recently been made to apply it to this decision problem. Here, we present a new Bayesian method that, unlike the previous ones, presents two major advantages together. First, it provides an estimate of the probability of no radioactivity, as well as physically meaningful point and interval estimates for the true radioactivity level. Second, whereas Bayesian approaches are often controversial because of the arbitrary choice of the priors they use, the proposed method permits to estimate the parameters of the prior density of radioactivity by fitting its marginal distribution to previously recorded activity data. The new scheme is first mathematically developed. Then, it is applied to the detection of radioxenon isotopes in noble gas measurement stations of the International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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