A Periodically-Forced Mathematical Model for the Seasonal Dynamics of Malaria in Mosquitoes

Autor: Thomas J. Smith, Nakul Chitnis, Diggory Hardy
Rok vydání: 2012
Předmět:
Male
Mathematics(all)
Insecticides
Mosquito Control
Indoor residual spraying
law.invention
Toxicology
Mathematical model
Environmental Science(all)
law
Prevalence
Malaria epidemiology
General Environmental Science
Life Sciences
general
Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
Incidence
General Neuroscience
Mosquito control
Transmission (mechanics)
Mathematical and Computational Biology
Computational Theory and Mathematics
Periodic orbits
Female
Original Article
Seasons
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Neuroscience(all)
General Mathematics
Immunology
Biology
Models
Biological
General Biochemistry
Genetics and Molecular Biology
Malaria transmission
Environmental health
parasitic diseases
medicine
Animals
Humans
Insecticide-Treated Bednets
Pharmacology
Models
Statistical
Biochemistry
Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
Numerical Analysis
Computer-Assisted
Cell Biology
medicine.disease
Malaria
Heterogeneous population
Culicidae
Mathematics
Zdroj: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
ISSN: 1522-9602
0092-8240
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-011-9710-0
Popis: We describe and analyze a periodically-forced difference equation model for malaria in mosquitoes that captures the effects of seasonality and allows the mosquitoes to feed on a heterogeneous population of hosts. We numerically show the existence of a unique globally asymptotically stable periodic orbit and calculate periodic orbits of field-measurable quantities that measure malaria transmission. We integrate this model with an individual-based stochastic simulation model for malaria in humans to compare the effects of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) in reducing malaria transmission, prevalence, and incidence. We show that ITNs are more effective than IRS in reducing transmission and prevalence though IRS would achieve its maximal effects within 2 years while ITNs would need two mass distribution campaigns over several years to do so. Furthermore, the combination of both interventions is more effective than either intervention alone. However, although these interventions reduce transmission and prevalence, they can lead to increased clinical malaria; and all three malaria indicators return to preintervention levels within 3 years after the interventions are withdrawn.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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