Real Gross Domestic Growth Determinants in an Oil Revenue Dependent Country: An Assessment of Nigeria’s Exchange Rate and Interest Rate
Autor: | Patrick Kanayo Adigwe, Amalachukwu Ananwude, Felicia Akujinma Anyanwu |
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Rok vydání: | 2017 |
Předmět: |
Geldpolitik
Economics Bruttoinlandsprodukt media_common.quotation_subject monetary policy Nigeria Einnahmen Westafrika Real Gross Domestic Product Exchange Rate Interest Rate Monetary economics Zentralbank Gross domestic product Exchange rate revenue Granger causality Entwicklungsland West Africa ddc:330 foreign exchange Devisen crude oil central bank media_common Wirtschaftswachstum gross domestic product developing country Wirtschaft General Medicine International economics Erdöl Wechselkurs economic growth Gross domestic income Interest rate rate of exchange Interest rate parity Real gross domestic product Wirtschaftspolitik Economic Policy Zinssatz Foreign exchange market interest rate |
Zdroj: | Science Journal of Energy Engineering |
ISSN: | 2376-810X |
DOI: | 10.11648/j.sjee.20170504.11 |
Popis: | The determinants of real gross domestic product growth in Nigeria was ascertained in this study. The research was motivated by 1.53 percent decline in real gross domestic product growth rate in 2016 coupled with the foreign exchange crisis that engulfed the economy. Specifically, the study determined whether exchange rate and interest rate predict real gross domestic product growth using secondary data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria for the period 1980 to 2016. Aside testing for stationarity of the data and diagnosing the model to meet standard econometric postulations, the Granger Causality prediction estimation was employed to realize the objective of the research. Firstly, by the application of Johansen co-integration and ARDL methodology, the study identify that exchange rate and interest rate are not co-integrated/related with real gross domestic product growth. Secondly, the multiple regression estimated via ARDL shows that exchange rate and interest rate have negative but insignificant relationship with real gross domestic product growth. Finally, the study empirically found that exchange rate and interest rate are not determinants of real gross domestic product growth in Nigeria. To strengthen the value of the local currency against the US dollar in particular, and other currencies of the world, a well-managed foreign exchange floating system is preferred. Diversification from oil to non-oil policies should be pursued with vigour with the view of aggressively down playing importation to reduce the pressure on forex which jolts up exchange rate position adversely. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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