Short-lived climate forcers have long-term climate impacts via the carbon–climate feedback

Autor: Philippe Ciais, Xinyue Li, Yunman Han, Bengang Li, Yves Balkanski, Bo Fu, S. L. Piao, Thomas Gasser, Shu Tao, S. Peng, Luchao Han, Wei Li, Tianya Yin, Jie An, Jing Xu
Přispěvatelé: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), National Natural Science Foundation of China, NSFC: 41988101, 2019QZKK0208, 41830641, 41771495, This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China grant nos. 41771495, 41830641 and 41988101 and the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program grant no. 2019QZKK0208., Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: Nature Climate Change
Nature Climate Change, Nature Publishing Group, 2020, 10 (9), pp.851-855. ⟨10.1038/s41558-020-0841-x⟩
Nature Climate Change, 2020, 10 (9), pp.851-855. ⟨10.1038/s41558-020-0841-x⟩
ISSN: 1758-678X
1758-6798
Popis: Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) like methane, ozone and aerosols have a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO2 and are often assumed to have a short-term effect on the climate system: should their emissions cease, so would their radiative forcing (RF). However, via their climate impact, SLCFs can affect carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2, causing additional climate change. Here, we use a compact Earth system model to attribute CO2 RF to direct CO2 emissions and to climate–carbon feedbacks since the pre-industrial era. We estimate the climate–carbon feedback contributed 93 ± 50 mW m−2 (~5%) to total RF of CO2 in 2010. Of this, SLCF impacts were −13 ± 50 mW m−2, made up of cooling (−115 ± 43 mW m−2) and warming (102 ± 26 mW m−2) terms that largely cancel. This study illustrates the long-term impact that short-lived species have on climate and indicates that past (and future) change in atmospheric CO2 cannot be attributed only to CO2 emissions. Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) are thought to have short-term impacts relative to CO2. A compact Earth system model estimates SLCFs have caused substantial, long-term impacts via carbon–climate feedbacks since the pre-industrial era but species-dependent impacts of opposite sign largely cancel.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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