Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China
| Autor: | Tang, Cindy Q., Dong, Yi-Fei, Herrando Moraira, Sonia, Matsui, Tetsuya, Ohashi, Haruka, He, Long-Yuan, Nakao, Katsuhiro, Tanaka, Nobuyuki, Tomita, Mizuki, Li, Xiao-Shuang, Yan, Hai-Zhong, Peng, Ming-Chun, Hu, Jun, Yang, Ruo-Han, Li, Wang-Jun, Yan, Kai, Hou, Xiuli, Zhang, Zhi-Ying, López-Pujol, Jordi |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Pro Natura Foundation, Ministry of Environment (Japan), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (España), National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
China Conservation of Natural Resources 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Climate Change Species distribution Population Dynamics Endangered species Climate change 010603 evolutionary biology 01 natural sciences Article Trees Refugium (population biology) Effects of global warming Ecosystem 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Multidisciplinary biology Geography Ecology Endangered Species Last Glacial Maximum Models Theoretical biology.organism_classification Davidia involucrata Habitat Refugium Nyssaceae |
| Zdroj: | Scientific Reports Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC instname |
| ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/srep43822 |
| Popis: | 18 p., fot. col., mapas, tablas -- El artículo está sujeto a una licencia Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata. This study received financial support from the Pro Natura Foundation-Japan (2014), the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, the “Proyecto Intramural Especial, PIE” (grant no. 201630I024) from the CSIC, Spain, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC 31300349). |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|