Physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019: natural experiment in 149 countries
Autor: | Ichiro Kawachi, Ralph B. D'Agostino, Martin White, Ben Lacey, Nazrul Islam, Sharmin Shabnam, Stephen J. Sharp, Gerardo Chowell, Joseph M. Massaro |
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Přispěvatelé: | Islam, Nazrul [0000-0003-3982-4325], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Sharp, Stephen [0000-0003-2375-1440], White, Martin [0000-0002-1861-6757] |
Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
Natural experiment
Internationality Distancing Pneumonia Viral Psychological intervention 03 medical and health sciences Betacoronavirus 0302 clinical medicine Intervention (counseling) medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine Social isolation Pandemics Government SARS-CoV-2 Incidence (epidemiology) Incidence Research COVID-19 Interrupted Time Series Analysis General Medicine Confidence interval Coronavirus Social Isolation Communicable Disease Control medicine.symptom Psychology Coronavirus Infections 030217 neurology & neurosurgery Demography |
Zdroj: | BMJ The BMJ |
DOI: | 10.17863/cam.55151 |
Popis: | ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) globally.DesignNatural experiment using interrupted time series analysis, with results synthesised using meta-analysis.Setting149 countries or regions, with data on daily reported cases of covid-19 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and data on the physical distancing policies from the Oxford covid-19 Government Response Tracker.ParticipantsIndividual countries or regions that implemented one of the five physical distancing interventions (closures of schools, workplaces, and public transport, restrictions on mass gatherings and public events, and restrictions on movement (lockdowns)) between 1 January and 30 May 2020.Main outcome measureIncidence rate ratios (IRRs) of covid-19 before and after implementation of physical distancing interventions, estimated using data to 30 May 2020 or 30 days post-intervention, whichever occurred first. IRRs were synthesised across countries using random effects meta-analysis.ResultsOn average, implementation of any physical distancing intervention was associated with an overall reduction in covid-19 incidence of 13% (IRR 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.89; n=149 countries). Closure of public transport was not associated with any additional reduction in covid-19 incidence when the other four physical distancing interventions were in place (pooled IRR with and without public transport closure was 0.85, 0.82 to 0.88; n=72, and 0.87, 0.84 to 0.91; n=32, respectively). Data from 11 countries also suggested similar overall effectiveness (pooled IRR 0.85, 0.81 to 0.89) when school closures, workplace closures, and restrictions on mass gatherings were in place. In terms of sequence of interventions, earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in covid-19 incidence (pooled IRR 0.86, 0.84 to 0.89; n=105) compared with a delayed implementation of lockdown after other physical distancing interventions were in place (pooled IRR 0.90, 0.87 to 0.94; n=41).ConclusionsPhysical distancing interventions were associated with reductions in the incidence of covid-19 globally. No evidence was found of an additional effect of public transport closure when the other four physical distancing measures were in place. Earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in the incidence of covid-19. These findings might support policy decisions as countries prepare to impose or lift physical distancing measures in current or future epidemic waves. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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