Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change - the need for whole atmosphere observation and operational attribution
| Autor: | Osprey, Scott, Behrens, Erik, Brookshaw, Anca, Findell, Kirsten, Heimbach, Patrick, Kushner, Paul, Risbey, James, Smith, Doug, Steiner, Andrea, Sutton, Rowan, Wang, Zhuo |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Zdroj: | XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
| Popis: | Recent annual assessments of present-day andfutureclimate variability provided by the World Meteorological Organization have motivated the need for the attribution of environmental change, separating climate forcing agents from large-scale natural climate variability. To address this need operational forecasting systems are essential together with sustained, comprehensive and relevant observations for assessing current climate and climate forcers. The World Climate Research Programme Light House Activity – Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (EPESC) – will cast a new light on the proximal drivers of regional climate variation on annual-to-decadal (A2D) timescales.The EPESC is focused on three distinct yet interrelated themes: The monitoring and modelling of Earth system change; the integrated attribution, prediction and projection of A2D changes including the potential for extremes; and the assessment of current and future hazards. In this presentation we will outline the current and future requirements of A2D prediction and projection, including the requisite infrastructure of operational attribution and the need for comprehensive whole-atmosphere observations, such as those which will be provided by the proposedChanging-Atmosphere Infra-Red Tomography Explorer (CAIRT), recently selected by the European Space Agency (ESA) as one of four candidates for the Earth Explorer 11 mission. The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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