Risk aversion and uncertainty create a conundrum for planning recovery of a critically endangered species
| Autor: | Rohan H. Clarke, Stefano Canessa, James Vandersteen, Gemma Taylor, Dean Ingwersen, John G. Ewen |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
lcsh:QH1-199.5
Status quo cognitive bias media_common.quotation_subject CONSERVATION lcsh:General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution Value of information ELICITATION Nest lcsh:QH540-549.5 decision tree PROGRAM predator control TOOL Veterinary Sciences reintroduction General Environmental Science media_common PREDATION Actuarial science Risk aversion SUCCESS Expert elicitation value of information expert elicitation Adaptive management Confirmation bias Earth and Environmental Sciences Threatened species ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT SURVIVAL POPULATIONS General Earth and Planetary Sciences nest success Business lcsh:Ecology |
| Zdroj: | Conservation Science and Practice, Vol 2, Iss 2, Pp n/a-n/a (2020) CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE |
| ISSN: | 2578-4854 |
| Popis: | Making transparent and rational decisions to manage threatened species in situations of high uncertainty is difficult. Managers must balance the optimism of successful intervention with the risk that intervention could make matters worse. We assessed nest protection options for regent honeyeaters (Anthochaera phrygia) in Australia. Formal expert elicitation highlighted two methods of nest protection expected to improve nest success. However, the risks and benefits of different actions were uncertain; for example, protecting nests from predators might also increase the risk of nest desertion by adults. To avoid risks, the recovery team opted to collect more information before implementation. The two methods of nest protection were compared using a field experiment. However, the same risk aversion limited the experiment to a single variable (nest predation) and dictated the use of artificial nests. The results of the experiment suggested neither action was likely to significantly reduce predation risks ( |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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