Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China
| Autor: | Yuan Xie, Wuyang Zhu, Shuqing Liu, Hong Song, Wen-gao Lu, Jian Yang, Danni Ai |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Male RNA viruses Viral Diseases Epidemiology RC955-962 Pathology and Laboratory Medicine Viral Zoonoses law.invention Geographical Locations 0302 clinical medicine Medical Conditions law Risk Factors Zoonoses Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine Prevalence Medicine and Health Sciences Public and Occupational Health Dog Diseases Child education.field_of_study Mortality rate Middle Aged Vaccination and Immunization Geography Transmission (mechanics) One Health Infectious Diseases Medical Microbiology Child Preschool Viral Pathogens Viruses Female Pathogens Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Research Article Neglected Tropical Diseases Mainland China Adult medicine.medical_specialty China Asia Adolescent Rabies Death Rates 030231 tropical medicine Population Immunology Microbiology Infectious Disease Epidemiology 03 medical and health sciences Young Adult Rabies Virus Dogs Population Metrics Environmental health medicine Animals Humans Computer Simulation education Microbial Pathogens Aged Population Biology Public health Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Organisms Biology and Life Sciences Models Theoretical Birth Rates medicine.disease Tropical Diseases 030104 developmental biology Age Groups People and Places Lyssavirus Population Groupings Preventive Medicine |
| Zdroj: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 7, p e0009527 (2021) PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| ISSN: | 1935-2735 1935-2727 |
| Popis: | Background The mortality of humans due to rabies in China has been declining in recent years, but it is still a significant public health problem. According to the global framework, China strives to achieve the goal of eliminating human rabies before 2030. Methods We reviewed the epidemiology of human deaths from rabies in mainland China from 2004 to 2018. We identified high risk regions, age and occupational groups, and used a continuous deterministic susceptibility-exposure-infection-recovery (SEIR) model with periodic transmission rate to explore seasonal rabies prevalence in different human populations. The SEIR model was used to simulate the data of human deaths from rabies reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). We calculated the relative transmission intensity of rabies from canines to different human groups, and they provided a reliable epidemiological basis for further control and prevention of human rabies. Results Results showed that human deaths from rabies exhibited regional differences and seasonal characteristics in mainland China. The annual human death from rabies in different regions, age groups and occupational groups decreased steadily across time. Nevertheless, the decreasing rates and the calculated R0s of canines of various human groups were different. The transmission intensity of rabies from canines to human populations was the highest in the central regions of China, in people over 45 years old, and in farmers. Conclusions Although the annual cases of human deaths from rabies have decreased steadily since 2007, the proportion of human deaths from rabies varies with region, age, gender, and occupation. Further enhancement of public awareness and immunization status in high-risk population groups and blocking the transmission routes of rabies from canines to humans are necessary. The concept of One Health should be abided and human, animal, and environmental health should be considered simultaneously to achieve the goal of eradicating human rabies before 2030. Author summary Animal and human rabies were still significant public health problems in China. In the past 15 years, although the annual human deaths from rabies have decreased steadily, the proportion change in human deaths from rabies varied with diverse population groups. This condition reflected the different recognition and attention to rabies of various populations. We applied a continuous deterministic SEIR model to study the spread of rabies among canines and from canines to different human groups. Numerical simulation results showed that the proportion of human deaths from rabies in central regions, the populations over 45 years old and the farmers in China increase year by year, and transmission intensity of rabies from canines to the above groups are higher than the nationwide level. Finally, our research indicated that to achieve the ultimate goal of eliminating human rabies by 2030, the immunization status of high-risk human groups and mammals in corresponding areas should be enhanced, and the cooperation with various departments related to human, animal and the environment should be enhanced in line with the concept of One Health. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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