Forecasting product sales with a stochastic Bass model

Autor: M. Kornelis, Johan Grasman
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
02 engineering and technology
Statistics::Other Statistics
Wiskundige en Statistische Methoden - Biometris
Informatiemanagement & Projectmanagement Organisatie
Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process
0502 economics and business
0202 electrical engineering
electronic engineering
information engineering
lcsh:Industry
Applied mathematics
Consument & Keten
Point estimation
Mathematical and Statistical Methods - Biometris
Mathematics
Datawetenschap
Informatiemanagement & Projectmanagement Organisatie
050210 logistics & transportation
lcsh:Mathematics
Applied Mathematics
05 social sciences
Data Science
Data Science
Information Management & Projectmanagement Organisation
Bass model
Datawetenschap
lcsh:QA1-939
Confidence domain
Confidence interval
Bass (sound)
lcsh:HD2321-4730.9
020201 artificial intelligence & image processing
Sensitivity of parameter to data
Consumer and Chain
Information Management & Projectmanagement Organisation
Zdroj: Journal of Mathematics in Industry 9 (2019)
Journal of Mathematics in Industry, 9
Journal of Mathematics in Industry, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2019)
ISSN: 2190-5983
DOI: 10.1186/s13362-019-0059-6
Popis: With the Bass model and data of previous sales a point estimate of future sales can be made for the purpose of stock management. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of that estimate a confidence interval can be of use. In this study such an interval is constructed from a Bass model extended with a noise term. The size of the noise is assumed to be proportional with the yearly sales. It is also assumed that the deviation from the deterministic solution is sufficiently small to make a small noise approximation. This perturbation takes the form of a time dependent Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. For the variance of the perturbation an exact expression can be given which is needed in order to obtain confidence intervals.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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