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Hopko N. V., Zadorozhna V. I. FORECAST OF EPIDEMIC PROCESS OF LEPTOSPIROSIS IN THE CHERNIVTSI REGION AND UKRAINE. Актуальні проблеми транспортної медицини / Actual problems of transport medicine / 2018;3(53):47-52. ISSN 1818-9385 DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1434248 http://aptm.org.ua FORECAST OF EPIDEMIC PROCESS OF LEPTOSPIROSIS IN THE CHERNIVTSI REGION AND UKRAINE N. V. Hopko1, V. I. Zadorozhna2 1State Institution "Chernivtsi Regional Laboratory Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine", Chernivtsi e-mail: gopkonv@gmail.com 2State Enterprise "Institute of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases named after. L.V. Gromashevsky NAMS of Ukraine », Kyiv, e-mail: viz2010@ukr.net Summary The analysis of morbidity was carried out using the epidemiological method. The initial dynamic curve was analytically aligned using the logarithmic type of approximation and the method of mathematical modeling for determination the main trends and prediction the incidence of leptospirosis. The average incidence of leptospirosis in Chernivtsi region was 3.14 ± 2.01 per 100 thousand population against 1.38 ± 0.73 per 100 thousand population in Ukraine (p˂0,05). In 1998 and 2007-2008, the highest morbidity rate in the last 20 years was registered, which was more than 4 times higher than the national indicator. According to forecast data, in 2018-2020. we can expect the incidence of leptospirosis in Chernivtsi region in an average of 1.09 ± 0.22 cases per 100 thousand population per year. Unfortunately, to form a clear forecast of the epidemic process in the Chernivtsi region, it is not enough to use official statistics, since they do not reflect the actual level of morbidity on leptospirosis, which is primarily due to hypodiagnosis. In order to compare the incidence rates at the local level with world-wide data for more correct conclusions it is necessary to create of an electronic register of patients with leptospirosis and to synchronize statistical reporting in epidemiological practice. Key words: leptospirosis, morbidity, prognosis. |
