Heat and cold related-mortality in 18 French cities
Autor: | Magali Corso, Aymeric Ung, Karine Laaidi, Pascal Beaudeau, Mathilde Pascal, Vérène Wagner |
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Rok vydání: | 2018 |
Předmět: |
Distributed lag
Percentile Hot Temperature 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Lag Climate Change Population Climate change Context (language use) 010501 environmental sciences 01 natural sciences Humans Poisson Distribution Mean radiant temperature Cities Mortality education lcsh:Environmental sciences 0105 earth and related environmental sciences General Environmental Science lcsh:GE1-350 education.field_of_study Confounding Cold Temperature Environmental science France Public Health Demography |
Zdroj: | Environment International, Vol 121, Iss, Pp 189-198 (2018) |
ISSN: | 1873-6750 |
Popis: | Objectives: Understanding the dynamics of the temperature-mortality relationship is an asset to support public health interventions. We investigated the lag structure of the mortality response to cold and warm temperatures in 18 French cities between 2000 and 2010. Methods: A distributed lag non-linear generalized model using a quasi-Poisson distribution and controlling for classical confounding factors was built in each city. A fitted meta-analytical model combined the city-specific models to derive the best linear unbiased prediction of the association, and a meta-regression explored the influence of background characteristics of the cities. The fraction of mortality attributable to cold and heat was estimated with reference to the minimum mortality temperature. Results: Between 2000 and 2010, 3.9% [CI 95% 3.2:4.6] of the total mortality was attributed to cold, and 1.2% [1.1:1.2] to heat. The immediate increase in mortality following high temperatures was partly compensated by a harvesting effect when temperatures were below the 99.2 percentiles of the mean temperature distributions. Discussion: Cold represents a significant public health burden, mostly driven by moderate temperatures (between percentiles 2.5 and 25). The population is better adapted to warm temperatures, up to a certain intensity when heat becomes an acute environmental health emergency (above percentile 99). The rapid increase in mortality risk at very high temperatures percentiles calls for an active adaptation in a context of climate change. Keywords: Temperature, Heat wave, Cold spell, Mortality |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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